VERIFY QUESTION
WFMY News 2 meteorologists get calls all the time from viewers wanting to know long-range forecasts. For example -- will it rain on my family beach trip in September? Will it snow at a friend's wedding in January...next year?
How far in advance can meteorologists accurately forecast?
Accuweather will convince forecast seekers it knows forecasts up to 90 days out. Currently, it predicts Sunday, Oct. 14 in Greensboro will be mostly sunny and 76 -- five degrees above normal.
Only halfway through summer, how would meteorologists predict this information? Is it accurate?
VERIFY SOURCE
Good Morning Show meteorologist Eric Chilton helps us VERIFY.
VERIFY PROCESS
In explaining the process, Chilton used the analogy of a pot of boiling water.
When you heat up a pot of water, you know eventually, it will bubble, but you don't know where in the pot it will bubble. It is similar for a storm. Meteorologists tend to know when a storm will form but not exactly where.
Chilton said every long-term forecast is based on current conditions. So, for example, a forecast for next Wednesday is predicted using readings for this Wednesday. Every day, weather balloons across the U.S. go up into the sky twice a day and take readings of pressure and winds in the atmosphere. Models take the data from across the country and make maps, creating the predictions for the future.
VERIFY CONCLUSION
Chilton said try not to rely on forecast predictions farther than four days away from the current date. Long-range forecasts might be somewhat accurate based on weather trends in a particular area, but they are not reliable.