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Don't try to predict election from early voting numbers

There are a few reasons a surge in early voting isn't a good crystal ball for who will win.

GREENSBORO, N.C. — More folks from North Carolina are standing up for their beliefs in this election.
After 13 days of early voting in 2016, about 2.1 million had cast their ballot either in person or by mail. In the same amount of time this year, 3.6 million people already voted.

But political scientists say using the surge in early voting to predict a winner, is like trying to read between the lines. It can get messy.

You could look at what party they are registered to: 39 percent are Democrats, 30 percent are Republicans and 30 percent are unaffiliated. So it may seem like Democrats have an advantage except that falls in line pretty much with how many people are registered to those parties in our state. And remember in 2016, there were more registered Democrats but Donald Trump still won North Carolina.

Plus there's a poll from ABC News/Washington Post which showed that the majority of people who planned to early vote supported Joe Biden but among those who wanted to wait until election day more picked Donald Trump.

This happened back in 2016 too. Records show Hilary Clinton won 51 percent of the early vote in our state, but only 41 percent on election day.

In truth, every source 2 Wants To Know has says the best way to predict who will win the election is still by looking at the polls. Right now according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker Biden is up by 4 points but that's within the 4.1 point margin of error. So it's still anybody's ball game.

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