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VERIFY: Yes, A Dry Fall This Year Can Indicate A Wetter One Next Year

You ask; we VERIFY. A dry fall this year could indicate a closer-to-average fall next year, in terms of rainfall.

GREENSBORO, N.C. — Finally, we have found fall temperatures and are enjoying cool, crisp air. But, where's the rain? Isn't it hurricane season?



  • Meteorologist Terran Kirksey


Meteorologist Terran Kirksey said the answer is, perhaps surprisingly, true. He explained, "Historically, after a very wet or very dry fall, the next season has been closer to average, in general. In other words, after an unusually dry fall, the next fall has been wetter, and after an unusually wet fall, the next fall has been drier."

To VERIFY, he looked at rainfall totals at Piedmont Triad International Airport during meteorological fall (September 1 - November 30). He found the historical average (normal) rainfall for the fall season is 9.71 inches.

The average precipitation of the top-10 driest fall seasons was 3.44 inches. The average precipitation of the year after those dry seasons was 10.94 inches.

Kirksey noted from 2015 to 2018, there were two above-average rain years and two below-average rain years. 


Yes, if our dry fall continues, we can expect a wetter fall next year.

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