NORFOLK, Va. — This is the sixth year in a row we’re facing a named storm before the formal start of hurricane season on June 1.
The National Hurricane Center hasn’t officially released its forecast, but some experts believe we could see above-average activity this hurricane season.
For starters, the odds of El Niño are decreasing, according to federal forecasters. El Niño conditions help sheer storms apart as they develop. Without these heavier winds in the tropics, there isn’t a lot to slow storms down as they develop.
Combine that element with warm waters brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. Think of warm water as fuel for hurricanes.
There is some promise, however. Early season storms don’t necessarily mean we’re going to have a more active year.
Since 2000, we have had 10 early-storm seasons. In those 10 seasons, the average number of storms was 15.1. The average number of storms in the entire 19-year span was 15.3.
So, while we’re seeing an early start and conditions favoring an active season, it doesn’t mean the year will end busy.
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