Just another day living in the tropics, I mean Hampton Roads. It feels like the tropics though, doesn't it?! We know you've felt that humidity if you've stepped outside.
Those dew points indicate lots of available moisture in the atmosphere and when we get daytime heating forcing that hot, humid air to rise we typically get thunderstorms. Heavy downpours of rain are expected again for today... so much so that a flash flood watch is in place for Virginia counties through midnight.
Many areas have seen several inches of rain in the past week, this leads to saturated grounds and increases our risk even more. We end the week and head into the weekend with the risk for flash flooding in our viewing area on Thursday, Friday and Saturday..Here's the excessive rain outlook for the next three days:
Storms decrease after the sun sets. Nights are warm and very humid before another chance for storms the next day. Storm chances are a little lower as we head into early next week.
The tropical Atlantic features one system we are keeping our eyes on. Tropical Depression #11 which will soon be named Tropical Storm Josephine.
It is forecast to strengthen and track north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Right now, this does NOT look like a threat to the United States East Coast. Why? The storm's interaction with a front offshore will re-introduce wind shear and also lift the system north and eventually shove it east and well out to sea.
Despite a rather quiet basin at the moment we can look to the Eastern Pacific for a glimpse of what is to come. A large uptick in activity can be attributed to the enhanced phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation propagating through. This introduces large scale rising motion essentially making the environment much more conducive for storms to develop. This enhanced phase will pivot eastwards in the coming weeks and be in the Atlantic by the end of the month. We can look for an increase in activity there by then.
Speaking of the Eastern Pacific, things are much more active there. As of Thursday morning, there are four areas to watch, with one - Post Tropical Cyclone Elida - fizzling out.
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