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National Retail Federation releases 2023 holiday spending projections

The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending will increase a tiny bit in 2023.

LEXINGTON COUNTY, S.C. — Shoppers braved the cold and rain to spend cash and spread holiday cheer on Saturday.

Beverly Medlin hosted the fourth annual Christmas Fair and Market at the South Carolina State Farmers Market on Saturday, where several local businesses attended with Christmas-themed items to sell.

Mother-daughter duo Mary and Julie Vannater visited the market to explore and find some of their smaller gifts this year.

"We're Christmas shopping, we heard the farmer's market had Christmas things today, so that's why we came," Julie said. 

"Just little small things, stocking stuffers," Mary added.

Folks like the Vannater family are a few of the millions who have already started holiday shopping. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its projections for holiday spending this year and expects a new dynamic with online shopping becoming increasingly more popular. 

"I feel like there are the big ticket items, and then the smaller items that I can look for around places like this [South Carolina State Farmer's Market]," Mary Vannater said. "I think I order the big things, and then I just like shopping for extras."

The retail federation expects online shopping to grow by 9% this year, while retail shopping in person will increase by 3-4%.

In-person shopping is what small business owners like Jacqueline Moses, the owner of One Tribe Designs, are hoping for.

"I've had a website for just over a year, and in that year we've only had two orders. Everyone I talk to doesn't have luck with websites so it's definitely just in-person sales. It's definitely picked up, the holiday season is the best time of the year," Moses said.

Americans are expected to spend between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion until Dec. 31.

"It is not surprising to see holiday sales growth returning to pre-pandemic levels. Overall household finances remain in good shape and will continue to support the consumer's ability to spend," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

According to The Conference Board Holiday Spending Survey, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $985 on holiday-related items in 2023, less than the $1,006 reported in 2022. 

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