CHARLOTTE, N.C. — With so many large events canceling, the end goal is to slow down the spread of infections, so hospitals don't get overwhelmed. There is proof social distancing works.
Two reports published more than a decade ago reveal the number of people who may need to be hospitalized could far outpace the number of available hospital beds.
The reports, published in the late 2000s,both reference the Spanish Flu of 1918. St. Louis, which canceled large events, experienced far fewer deaths (less than 700) than Philadelphia (roughly 12,000), which held a large parade.
As top state and local health officials reassure the public about North Carolina and South Carolina's preparedness to handle the Coronavirus pandemic, the decade only reports show prior preparation for another pandemic: the influenza pandemic
With fears COVID-19 could be more deadly and more contagious, the numbers suggest our hospitals may find themselves stretched thin.
Depending on the severity of a flu pandemic, anywhere from 9,000 to 91,000 people would die in the Carolinas, according to the reports. The hospitalizations would be even higher.
In North Carolina, for example, home to 21,222 licensed acute hospital beds, a moderate flu pandemic could result in 35,000 hospitalizations or 289,000 if severe, according to the North Carolina Institute of Medicine's April 2007 report. Those numbers are on top of patients needing medical treatment for other illnesses. North Carolina only has 3,223 Intensive Care Unit beds in all, according to state records.
"...a severe pandemic is likely to overwhelm our healthcare system," the report concluded.
At the time of the South Carolina Pandemic Influenza Ethics Task Force's September 2009 report, the state was home to 1,284 ventilators in all of its hospitals. The group found a flu pandemic would require an additional 306 ventilators every day.
Both Atrium Health and Novant Health spent part of Thursday reassuring the public their hospitals are ready.
"There are plans," Atrium Health Chief Medical Officer Dr. Jim Hunter said at a news conference. "We certainly take care of infectious patients every single day and our staff is both trained and ready for this and ready for the pandemic."
"We are looking at what other measures we can take," Novant Health Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Sid Fletcher added about additional plans at the same news conference. "We are also looking at setting up an external tent at Presbyterian Medical Center... We are preparing for that eventuality if it comes to it."