Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats

The decision by U.S. Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings not to seek re-election in 2004 will mean significant changes for South Carolina and the state Democratic Party, political observers say. Hollings, 81, said Monday the state's changing political landscape and his age were considerations in his decision to end his 55-year political career. South Carolina has grown accustomed to having seniority in the U.S. Senate. Former Sen. Strom Thurmond, who died in June, served for 48 years. When Hollings steps down, he will have served 38 years. "It's kind of disruptive for the state" to lose both its senior senators in two short years, said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen. "South Carolina has always liked two things: seniority and pork," Thigpen said. Seniority equals influence in politics, Thigpen said, and losing its senior senators could mean fewer dollars brought in for special projects around the state. "Now we're going to have a couple of junior members at a time when budgets are in dire need of anything we can get from the federal government," said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon. Hollings on Monday said he was confident that Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who was elected to replace Thurmond in 2002, would take care of the state's needs. "I think Senator Graham knows how to make friends. And that's the whole name of the game," he said. Hollings also acknowledged it will be hard for any Democrat to win the seat, as the state has been trending Republican. "It doesn't look terribly promising," Thigpen said. The race will be a test of the party's strength, Huffmon said. The party took a beating in the last election with losses in the Governor's Mansion and General Assembly. Hollings, Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Treasurer Grady Patterson are the only Democratic statewide officeholders. And Hollings' announcement means "the Republicans have a pretty good shot at getting that seat," Huffmon said. Adding to the difficulties for the Democrats is the presidential election in 2004. "The Republican vote in South Carolina is always going to be at its zenith in a presidential election year. Whoever the Republican nominee winds up being, they've got a good wagon to ride in on," Thigpen said. Two Democrats have expressed interest in Hollings' seat, Tenenbaum and Columbia Mayor Bob Coble. But neither have made a final decision. If the Democrats are able to get organized and use the Feb. 3 Democratic presidential primary as a means of revamping the party, they may have a chance of keeping the seat, Huffmon said. Still, in federal races, South Carolina tends to be a strong Republican state. "Whether she can transfer the kind of popularity and vote-getting ability she's had statewide into a ... race for federal office is another thing," Thigpen said. Democrats remain confident about the future. "We intend to keep that seat," said National Democratic Committeeman Waring Howe of Charleston. "We have several candidates, some of whom would be extremely strong." The Democratic party will survive this latest loss, said Charleston Mayor Joseph Riley Jr. "I think the state of South Carolina, which votes for Democrats and Republicans, may well see the advantage of having a member of each party in the U.S. Senate," Riley said. "National administrations will change over time, and the Democrats and the Republicans will one or the other be the majority party."