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Analysis: Government Shutdown Could Affect 2020 Presidency

The Elon Poll director assesses the historic aspects of the shutdown, the implications it could have and how it could affect the 2020 election.

GREENSBORO, N.C. — Day 21 of the government shutdown is starting to look a lot like 1995 -- a time when then-President Bill Clinton was at odds with then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich over how to balance the budget.

Now, in 2019, the scenario involves different players -- President Donald Trump versus House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

As of Friday, the two shutdowns now tie for longest in U.S. history.

Elon Poll Director Jason Husser said he sees key similarities.

"You have strong-willed leaders from the legislative branch and executive branch under divided government... this (2019) shutdown is unprecedented. We could see this lasting much longer than 21 days."

Husser assessed whether the President could utilize the option of declaring a national emergency to bypass Congress and get border wall funding.

"Even if a declaration is declared, we could still see years before construction starts on different parts of the border." That, he said, could yield time for court challenges. And, most likely a long-lasting funding source would have to come from Congress.

Husser said sentiment about a border wall has not changed among democrats and republicans since the administration started, and among voters, their feelings have strengthened one way or another.

He predicted national security and immigration will be key priorities in the 2020 election.

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